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Shallow downturn seen in UK housing market

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“The likely ‘job-rich’ recession suggests the downturn in the housing market this time could be shallower compared with past experiences,” says RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn. — Bloomberg

LONDON: Britain’s property appraisers expect a shallow and potentially short downturn in the housing market because many people are likely to keep their jobs during the recession.

The outlook from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RCIS) follows three months of declines in house prices recorded by two of the nation’s biggest mortgage lenders.

While buyers are growing more cautious after a jump in interest rates, the labour market remains tight and workers in short supply.

That, according to RICS, probably will prevent a 1990s-style plunge for residential property.

“The likely ‘job-rich’ recession suggests the downturn in the housing market this time could be shallower compared with past experiences,” Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS, said in a report yesterday.

Overall activity weakened in November. New buyer inquiries remained in negative territory, down 38% on RICS’s measure in November, up from a reading of 55% the month before.

Estate agents across the country universally reported a decline in sales prices for the second month. The biggest drops were in the south east and south west of England, which performed well after the pandemic.

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The concern is that the latest readings are the start of a more protracted downturn that could rival the property market recession that started in late 1989.

That episode saw homes lose a fifth of their value over three years, leaving as many as a million people living in places worth less than the mortgages used to buy them.

Nationwide Building Society’s chief financial officer Chris Rhodes last month said his “worst-case” scenario included a 30% drop in prices, but that a 8% to 10% decline is more likely.

Bloomberg Economics expects a drop of slightly less than 10% next year, estimating that values are currently 20% higher than can be justified by fundamentals.

RICS agents also expect a decline. An index measuring price expectations for the next year fell to 61% last month from 48% in October.

The big driver is surging interest rates, which have driven up the cost of mortgages to the highest since the property market was last in recession in 2008 and 2009.

The Bank of England lifted its benchmark lending rate eight times in the past year from near zero to 3%, and investors anticipate more moves in the months ahead.

That’s pushed mortgage rates on two-year fixed-rate deals above 6% in the past few months, meaning anyone who remortgages now may see their payments double, according to data from Moneyfacts Group Plc. The Office for Budget Responsibility anticipates the average mortgage cost may remain elevated until the end of the decade.

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